Escalation of Commitment

Avoid the psychological trap of escalating into a failing strategy.

You've probably heard of the Kimura trap, but do you know about the other “trap” strategies you can deploy in Jiu-Jitsu?

Jiu-Jitsu traps aren't always about techniques. Some of the best-laid traps are psychological. They exploit human psychology by tricking your opponent into making bad decisions that cost them the match.

“Escalation of commitment” is one of those psychological traps. It refers to the human tendency to double down on failed strategies instead of cutting your losses and changing course.

It's outside the scope of this newsletter to explain why humans are so vulnerable to escalations of commitment, but it happens everywhere. Unnecessary global conflicts, continued bad investments, and the gambler's fallacy are all examples of poor decisions made due to escalation of commitment.

Jiu-Jitsu is not immune to this error! Escalation of commitment is an important part of good Jiu-Jitsu strategy. You want to avoid escalating into a losing strategy while trying to trick your opponent into making that same mistake.

Let's talk about three common Jiu-Jitsu scenarios where escalation of commitment can cost you the match:


#1: Escalating intensity.
It's easy to get flustered when your opponent uses more speed, force, or aggression than you're comfortable with. This can trigger your fight/flight/freeze response, where choosing to “fight” means escalating commitment and matching their intensity. Great competitors use this to their advantage by overwhelming their opponent with intensity until they lose their composure. Learn to avoid this trap. Stick to your gameplan even when your opponent is escalating.


#2: Playing their game.
The best strategies are often asymmetric: You want to use your best strengths against your opponent's worst weaknesses. Sometimes we want to beat our opponent at their own game, such as trying to out-wrestle a wrestler. While this is fine when we're focusing on skill development in the training room, we should avoid playing into our opponent's areas of strength when we're competing with stakes on the line.


#3: Overestimating your success.
Sometimes we escalate commitment because we think our strategy is working, even though it's not. The most common example in Jiu-Jitsu is when grapplers try to force a submission with muscle rather than control. This often leads to the attacker tiring out, failing to get the submission, and handing the momentum to their fresher opponent. It's good to fight with initiative, but don't try to force a technique that isn't there.


These are just three of the many ways in which escalation of commitment can lead to match-losing decisions.

It's important to remember that the reverse of this strategy also applies: We want to avoid falling into these escalation traps, AND we also want to encourage our opponent to fall into those traps too! Jiu-Jitsu is much easier when you can convince your opponent to make a mistake.

Further study:

• Loss Aversion