Fighting the Last War

Don't assume that what worked in the past will work in the future.

I used to work for a guy who loved the old saying, “if it ain't broke, don't fix it.” He'd say this whenever anyone tried to help modernize his business.

That guy was a moron. By the time he retired, his once-great company had collapsed and lost most of its value.

It was a great lesson in what NOT to do.

Back in the 1980s, he found a magic formula and built a successful business around it. It worked amazingly at the time. But for some reason, he never evolved.

Maybe it was hubris? Who knows. But he was resistant to change, and spent the latter half of his career watching his life's work fade into irrelevance.

This was a gradual downfall that took 30 years. In jiu-jitsu, things happen much faster. Effective strategies can cycle in and out in just a few years (perhaps even months).

I'll counter “if it ain't broke, don't fix it” with another old quote: “what got you here won't get you there.” You never want to be the last one clinging to a failing old strategy when everyone else has moved on.

There's a term for this tendency to cling to old strategies: fighting the last war. It's when you keep using the same playbook because it worked in the past, without considering how things have changed in the present.

As you probably gathered from the name, the term is commonly used in military analysis. France famously “fought the last war” in World War II, when it built a fortified line along their German border in anticipation of trench warfare similar to World War I. This strategy proved entirely ineffective against the German blitzkrieg. We're seeing a similar strategic evolution in the 21st century with the rise of drone warfare, cyberattacks, and disinformation.

Fighting the last war is a strategic blunder that happens anywhere decisions are made.

Jiu-jitsu is different because the human body doesn't evolve as quickly as our technology. Our biology is still more or less the same as it was a few generations ago. But the strategy around how we choose to use our body, how we attack, and what we expect to defend against — the so-called “meta” — evolves constantly.

The free sharing of information that's become standard in the jiu-jitsu community is only accelerating this evolution. Meta trends evolve in response to what's working, so the quicker we share information, the faster we'll see counter-responses evolve.

How much you should care about this evolution depends on how serious you are about high-level jiu-jitsu. Most of the so-called “fundamentals” have that name for a reason: they're proven and timeless solutions. They'll serve you well and are unlikely to become obsolete.

But well-trained opponents will study the meta and develop sophisticated defenses and counters. The fundamentals alone won't be good enough here; you need a strategy that can cut through whatever they're planning.

A good strategy has layers: a solid foundation and a flexible perimeter. The fundamentals are the load-bearing walls, but the meta is the finish work.

Some timeless advice: accept the possibility of obsolescence. We need a better standard than “if it ain't broke, don't fix it.”

We should always, always seek feedback and look for areas to improve. We should never assume when we step onto a battlefield that it will be unchanged from the last time.

Whether it be jiu-jitsu or elsewhere, winning isn't always about being the best. Sometimes victory comes down to being the one who didn't make a stupid mistake. Fighting the last war is one of the most embarrassing and stupid mistakes to make, so keep an eye on your environment so you don't wind up using muskets when everyone else is using Gatling guns.

Further study:

• Layers of Strategy